Markets/Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$18K

Liquidity$1.0M

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets36 markets

36 deadline markets. Combined YES = 103% — 3pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

JD Vance

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Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election

17%

Elon Musk

Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561250