Markets/Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

80%YES

21%NO

Volume 24h

$94K

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

79% / 80%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

80%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?

Full event →

the Paris mayor election?

80%

the Paris mayor election?

21%

the Paris mayor election?

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+18.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

62% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

69% → 93%

Mar 16, 2026

Peak probability

96% YES — highest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Current

80% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 80%99%

Buy YES@ 80¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%

½ Kelly1.2%

Buy NO@ 20¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?" at 80% YES / 20% NO. In the last 24 hours, $94K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 80%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 80%, NO 20%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/646003