Markets/Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Market Price

100%YES

0%NO

FM Estimate

99%

Vol 24h$0

Liquidity$0

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The Paris mayoral election market is critical as it directly reflects the perceived viability of Emmanuel Grégoire's candidacy, with a 100% YES price indicating a near-certain victory according to market participants. This high valuation suggests that current information overwhelmingly favors his election.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?" at 100% YES / 0% NO.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/646003