Markets/Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes November 3, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

56%YES

44%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$18K

Bid / Ask

56% / 57%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

56%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…

2026

Full event →

the California Governor Election in 2026?

56%

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 Califor

25%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

12%

the California Governor Election in 2026?

23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

50% YES — lowest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 11, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 12, 2026

Biggest move: +10.0pp

54% → 64%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

66% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

56% YES (+3.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 56%99%

Buy YES@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 56%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628954