Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?

Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$28K

Liquidity

$49K

Bid / Ask

5% / 5%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

Full event →

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-50.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

55% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

3% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

32%

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -22.5pp

56% → 34%

Mar 2, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.2pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $28K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473077