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Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?
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Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
91%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?

March

Full event →
above $1,700 on March 21?
100%
above $1,600 on March 21?
100%
above $1,800 on March 21?
100%
above $2,000 on March 21?
100%
above $2,100 on March 21?
95%
$2,400 in March?
35%
$2,600 in March?
11%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?
10%
above $2,200 on March 21?
7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?
5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?
2%
$2,800 in March?
2%
above $2,300 on March 21?
2%
$3,000 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March?
1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?
1%
$3,200 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March?
0%
$3,400 in March?
0%
$3,600 in March?
0%
$4,000 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March?
0%
$3,800 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March?
0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March?
0%
above $2,400 on March 21?
0%
above $2,600 on March 21?
0%
above $2,500 on March 21?
0%

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-55.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

66% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 6, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: -32.0pp

61% → 28%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

75% YES — highest in period

Mar 1, 2026

Current

11% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢
Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473076

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