Markets/Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?

Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$62K

Bid / Ask0% / 1%

Spread0.30pp

ClosesJun 1, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is significant as it reflects a consensus that Ethereum will not fall to $400 in May, with a current YES price of 0%. This aligns with the broader market's expectation, as evidenced by related markets also trading at 0%, indicating a strong, unified sentiment against such a price decline.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets9 markets

9 deadline markets. Combined YES = 129% — 29pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?

Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May

75%

Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?

Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May

36%

Ethereum dip to $400 in May?

Ethereum dip to $400 in May

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30pp. The market closes on June 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2132807