Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 25?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$15K

Liquidity$289K

ClosedApr 26, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets21 markets

21 deadline markets. Market implies ~88% chance none resolve YES.

Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?

Ethereum reach $2,600 in April

Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26?

Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26

Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 25?

Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 25

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-1.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 25?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on April 25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2073893