Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$71K

Liquidity$172K

ClosedMay 2, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-11.4pp

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

The FC Metz win market is currently priced at 0%, indicating no probability assigned to this outcome by traders. This prediction has experienced a significant price drop of 12 percentage points over zero days, solidifying its current negligible valuation.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets16 markets

16 deadline markets. Combined YES = 515% — 415pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Arsenal FC

Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02

100%

AS Monaco FC

AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-02

100%

FC Metz

FC Metz win on 2026-05-02

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $71K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will FC Metz win on 2026-05-02?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2018972