ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?
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Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?

Closed April 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES
82%NO

Volume 24h

$1.1M

Liquidity

$70K

Bid / Ask

16% / 17%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.1M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1745426

Outcome Markets5 markets

This event has 5 active outcome markets. SC Freiburg: 100%, Crystal Palace FC: 99%, FC Porto: 19%.

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

46% YES

Apr 9, 2026

Current

43% YES (-5.0pp recent)

Apr 9, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 19%99%
Buy YES@ 19¢
Edge

+2.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 82¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+2.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this