Markets/Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

1.2%

Vol 24h$342K

Liquidity$38K

Bid / Ask1% / 2%

Spread0.70pp

ClosesSep 13, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market is relevant as Felix Auger Aliassime's 1% chance of winning the 2026 US Open is significantly lower than the 30% chance held by Fabiano Caruana in a related 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament market, suggesting a substantial disparity in perceived future success within the broader 2026 event landscape. The disparity between Auger Aliassime's 1% and the 6% chance of Praggnanandhaa winning a different 2026 tournament warrants further analytical attention.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $342K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.70pp. The market closes on September 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088480