Markets/Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes October 4, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$22K

Liquidity

$90K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

43%

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

39%

the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601821