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Markets/Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
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Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

57%YES
43%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

57% / 58%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

57%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819218

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Current

57% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 57%99%
Buy YES@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢
Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this