Markets/Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

21%YES

80%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$774

Bid / Ask

12% / 24%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

22% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: -16.5pp

39% → 23%

Mar 14, 2026

Peak probability

44% YES — highest in period

Mar 5, 2026

Current

16% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 21%99%

Buy YES@ 21¢

Edge

+2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 80¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693778