Markets/Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$44K

Liquidity$108K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesApr 30, 2027

Why this matters

Prediction markets price this at 1% YES (99% NO) — the market leans against this outcome. Related markets: Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? at 0%, Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-04? at 100%, Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-01? at 0%. $42K traded in the last 24 hours reflects active interest from market participants. Resolution expected by April 30, 2027.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets83 markets

83 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1127% — 1027pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 Fre

94%

Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 202

Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 Frenc

87%

François Ruffin

François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential ele

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679025