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Markets/Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
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Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?

Market Price

0%YES
100%NO

FM Estimate

1%
Vol 24h$81
Liquidity$23K
Bid / Ask0% / 0%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026
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Outcome Markets23 markets

23 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 20

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027

95%
Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 20

Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027

1%

Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before

Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $81 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485227