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Markets/Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

25%YES
75%NO

Volume 24h

$60K

Liquidity

$649K

Bid / Ask

25% / 25%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

2028

Full event →
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
7%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-2.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 13, 2026

Current

25% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 25%99%
Buy YES@ 25¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 75¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $60K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559652

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Venue Divergence

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Event Cluster

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