Markets/Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes April 5, 2026

Polymarket Price

57%YES

43%NO

Volume 24h

$367

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

56% / 58%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

57%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Current

56% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 57%99%

Buy YES@ 57¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 43¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?" at 57% YES / 43% NO. In the last 24 hours, $367 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 57%, NO 43%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1558286

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