Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$73K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?
March
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 29, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $73K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Germany strike Iran by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1693055
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