Markets/Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$29K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Biggest move: +13.7pp

4% → 18%

Mar 2, 2026

Peak probability

18% YES — highest in period

Mar 2, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

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From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472016

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