Markets/Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?

Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?

Market Price

17%YES

83%NO

Vol 24h$44K

Liquidity$716K

Bid / Ask17% / 18%

Spread1.00pp

ClosesApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets9 markets

9 deadline markets. Combined YES = 343% — 243pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Fulham FC

Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25

70%

FC Barcelona

FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25

59%

Getafe CF

Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25

17%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1954626