Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$61K

Liquidity$677K

ClosedMay 1, 2026

Game Summary

Outcome

Market resolved

Peak probability

33%

Highest YES during game

Price swing

32pp

High–low range

Volume traded

$61K

24h total

Liquidity

$677K

Market depth

Probability During Game · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-28.0pp

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets5 markets

5 deadline markets. Market implies ~100% chance none resolve YES.

Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?

Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw

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Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5

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Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-01). "Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2011948