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Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

50%YES
50%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

49% / 51%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

50%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+23.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 10, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 11, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 13, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 14, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +14.0pp

39% → 53%

Mar 9, 2026

Peak probability

59% YES — highest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Current

50% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 50%99%
Buy YES@ 50¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 50¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1021153