Markets/Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

0.9%

Vol 24h$9K

Liquidity$127K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesApr 30, 2027

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets82 markets

82 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1204% — 1104pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 Fre

94%

Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 202

Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 Frenc

89%

Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential ele

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679045