Markets/Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?

Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

1.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-7.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -9.8pp

12% → 2%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.1%

½ Kelly5.6%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Greg Joswiak be the next CEO of Apple?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/688380