Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$448K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 4, 2026
Biggest move: -6.7pp
7% → 0%
Mar 4, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.4pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+9.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $448K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469738
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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