Markets/Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:01 PM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$74K

Liquidity

$150K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly9.1%

½ Kelly4.5%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 9.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658946