Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$133K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
28% / 30%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
29%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
29% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $133K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677356
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