Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819221
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Apr 2, 2026
Trough probability
4% YES — lowest in period
Apr 2, 2026
Biggest move: -17.0pp
22% → 5%
Apr 2, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Apr 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this