Markets/Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$482K

Liquidity

$131K

Bid / Ask

4% / 5%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

2026

Full event →

the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+2.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $482K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658949