Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$0
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
99%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
27% YES
Feb 22, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
89%
Feb 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
44%
Mar 1, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 2, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +51.0pp
38% → 89%
Feb 28, 2026
Peak probability
100% YES — highest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Current
100% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1227362
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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