Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$620K
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
17%
Mar 1, 2026
Biggest move: +39.5pp
17% → 56%
Mar 1, 2026
Current
0% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 2, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $620K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1470007
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Venue Divergence
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