Markets/Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

100%YES

0%NO

Volume 24h

$81K

Liquidity

Expert Signal

99%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+73.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

27% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +35.0pp

65% → 100%

Mar 8, 2026

Current

100% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 99%99%

Buy YES@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. In the last 24 hours, $81K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1516739

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.