Markets/Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?

Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

100%YES

0%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

99%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+13.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

85% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

46% YES — lowest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +37.5pp

54% → 92%

Mar 5, 2026

Current

98% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 99%99%

Buy YES@ 99¢

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EV per $ wagered

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+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1467138

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