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Markets/Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
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Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Closes December 31, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence · 2 signals
11%FIS
−2ppvs market 13%
overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.7pp below current market price; market at 13% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -4.4% ↓, Gold +0.3% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -0.5% ↓, VIX -4.4% ↓, Gold +0.3% ↑
-2.8pp
HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]
-1.0pp
Live compute10:27 AM

Polymarket Price

13%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

12% / 14%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-2.1pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665515

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Apr 13, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this