Markets/Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

76%YES

25%NO

Volume 24h

$258K

Liquidity

$105K

Bid / Ask

75% / 76%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

76%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-6.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

82% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Trough probability

41% YES — lowest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

41%

Mar 8, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: -26.5pp

67% → 41%

Mar 8, 2026

Peak probability

91% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

76% YES (+1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 76%99%

Buy YES@ 76¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.0%

½ Kelly1.0%

Buy NO@ 25¢

-2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $258K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677397