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Markets/Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
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Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Polymarket Price

28%YES
72%NO

Volume 24h

$106K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

27% / 29%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

28%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?" at 28% YES / 72% NO. In the last 24 hours, $106K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 28%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 28%, NO 72%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1471982

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+15.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Apr 1, 2026

Biggest move: +20.5pp

12% → 33%

Apr 1, 2026

Peak probability

33% YES — highest in period

Apr 1, 2026

Current

27% YES (-5.4pp recent)

Apr 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 28%99%
Buy YES@ 28¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 72¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this