Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$0
Liquidity
$0
Expert Signal
99%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
88% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
82% YES — lowest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: +5.0pp
85% → 90%
Mar 2, 2026
Peak probability
94% YES — highest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Current
94% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 4, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?" at 100% YES / 0% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 99%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 100%, NO 0%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1437244
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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