Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?
Closed March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$645K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
79% / 80%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
81%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $645K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 81%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-31). "Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1743552
This event has 12 active outcome markets. Italy: 81%, Sweden: 63%, Türkiye: 48%.
Italy win on 2026-03-31?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
68% YES
Mar 31, 2026
Current
64% YES (-4.0pp recent)
Mar 31, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this