Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$141K
Bid / Ask
1% / 1%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
1%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…
2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Biggest move: +6.3pp
1% → 7%
Mar 7, 2026
Peak probability
7% YES — highest in period
Mar 7, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-16.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601820
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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