Markets/Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$36K

Liquidity$674K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets59 markets

59 deadline markets. Combined YES = 173% — 73pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Democratic

Democratic win the Presidency in 2028

61%

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential no

27%

Jared Polis

Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $36K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559674