Markets/Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$46K

Liquidity$1.9M

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This prediction market matters as it reflects the market's current assessment of Jasmine Crockett's potential path to the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with a YES price of 1%. The limited price action, juxtaposed against a higher assessed probability of Democratic control of the Senate (52%) and a stable VIX, suggests a significant underestimation of her candidacy by the market's current participants.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets71 markets

71 deadline markets. Combined YES = 227% — 127pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Democratic

Democratic win the Presidency in 2028

62%

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi

39%

Jasmine Crockett

Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidentia

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.2pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $46K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559692