Markets/Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Market Price

21%YES

79%NO

FM Estimate

22.8%

low confidence

Vol 24h$14K

Liquidity$317K

Bid / Ask20% / 20%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

historical_prior+17.5pp

Macro fundamentals+4.1pp

medium confidence · 3 signals

Why this matters

Prediction markets price this at 20% YES (80% NO) — the market leans against this outcome. Related markets: Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet befor at 0%, Will United States win on 2026-03-31? at 0%, Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican prima at 52%. $32K traded in the last 24 hours reflects active interest from market participants. Resolution expected by November 07, 2028.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets35 markets

35 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

JD Vance

JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election

21%

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election

17%

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election

10%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+2.6pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence4 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

21%anchor

Manifold

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PredictIt

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odds_api

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" at 21% YES / 79% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 21%, NO 79%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561229