Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
Closes May 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
27% / 28%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
4% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Current
10% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 17, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/681389
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Venue Divergence
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