Markets/Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

7%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$89

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

6% / 7%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

20% → 32%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

32% YES — highest in period

Mar 6, 2026

Current

13% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 7%99%

Buy YES@ 7¢

Edge

+7.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 94¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+7.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $89 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302124