Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$338
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
2% / 4%
Spread
1.40pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: +5.5pp
3% → 8%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
10% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
2% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $338 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122890
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.