ForecastMind
Markets/Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
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Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

0% / 2%

Spread

1.70pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907352

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%
½ Kelly6.5%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this