Markets/Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 05:53 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+53.9pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-23.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly23.1%

½ Kelly11.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 23.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1400472

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