Markets/Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

0.9%

Vol 24h$92K

Liquidity$417K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesNov 7, 2028

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets49 markets

49 deadline markets. Combined YES = 123% — 23pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi

39%

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

21%

Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561988