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Markets/Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Market Price

1%YES
99%NO

FM Estimate

1%
Vol 24h$92K
Liquidity$419K
Bid / Ask1% / 1%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesNov 7, 2028
Why this matters

This market has fallen 49pp over the last 7 days (from 50% to 1%), signaling a significant shift in market sentiment. Prediction markets price this at 1% YES (99% NO) — the market leans against this outcome. Related markets: Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican p at 2%, Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 at 48%, Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican p at 3%. $92K traded in the last 24 hours reflects active interest from market participants. Resolution expected by November 07, 2028.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets52 markets

52 deadline markets. Combined YES = 127% — 27pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomi

39%
Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

21%

Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nom

1%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.1pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/561988