Markets/Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes November 7, 2028

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$23K

Liquidity

$611K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Democratic win the Presidency in 2028?

2028

Full event →

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

25%

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

the 2028 US Presidential Election?

the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

26 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+3.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.2%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $23K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on November 7, 2028.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/559655