Markets/Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?

Market Price

18%YES

82%NO

FM Estimate

15%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced

3.1pp

Vol 24h$25

Liquidity$12K

Bid / Ask17% / 20%

Spread2.90pp

ClosesMay 5, 2026

Macro fundamentals-5.8pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

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PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 2.90pp. The market closes on May 5, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1195384